UFC 131 (UPDATE): Dos Santos vs. Carwin – Someone Is Getting Knocked Out

As Brock Lesnar succumbed to a second bout of diverticulitis, out of the ashes of disappointment has risen a real knockout of a matchup. A clash between Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin is now set to headline UFC 131 and it’s very hard to see this one leaving the first round.

Despite the obvious similarities in size, Carwin poses a completely different set of challenges for Dos Santos. Carwin, in many ways, is a one trick pony, a very deadly trick but singular nonetheless. That trick being the ability to put opponents to sleep with very short but powerful punches. Carwin is a behemoth of a man who hits as hard as he looks.

He may be one-dimensional but his size makes it very difficult for opponents to drag him out of his domain. The last man to do so was Lesnar when he took down and choked out an exhausted Carwin. The Lesnar tactic of extreme rope-a-dope is one that is unlikely to be deployed by Dos Santos.

The substitution of opponents is a real blow for Dos Santos, as his approach to the fight will have to be completely reshaped. In preparation for Lesnar, I doubt if Dos Santos was really concerned about the stand-up threat posed by the former champ. Dos Santos would have understood that he has a distinct advantage in that aspect. He would have been more worried about Lesnar’s quick finishing ground-and-pound, so his training would have been focused on countering that risk. As apposed to the new and very real threat of being knocked out on his feet.

To me, unlike the Brock fight, the area in which this fight takes place will not be a deciding factor. If pushed, I would maybe suggest that Carwin might look to take it to the ground but I doubt that. I think the deciding factor in this fight will be its length. If Junior can take Carwin into the 2nd and 3rd rounds then there is a real danger of Carwin gassing. Dos Santos has proven already that he can go three rounds and Carwin, famously, has only ever been taken to a second round once, in which he gassed out.

Expect a first round war. The hardest hitters in the sport are going to throw leather and their jaws will be tested. If Dos Santos can tough out the slugfest and avoid Carwin’s early thunder, then I predict Junior will triumph towards the end.

provided by AHB (A HUNDRED BATTLES)